Crusty
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.62
0.62 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $0.56 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
36.80%
11 openings, odds method
Variance
238.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 11 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 10,000 | $950 950 CSGOBIG_COIN | 17.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,111 | $28.72 28.72 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 250 | $9.75 9.75 CSGOBIG_COIN | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink | 1 in 100 | $4.94 4.94 CSGOBIG_COIN | 8.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 50 | $2.93 2.93 CSGOBIG_COIN | 10.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 22 | $1.47 1.47 CSGOBIG_COIN | 11.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff | 25.0% | $0.69 0.69 CSGOBIG_COIN | 30.9% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.09× |
| Negev | dev_texture (Well-Worn)weapon · violet | 15.0% | $0.25 0.25 CSGOBIG_COIN | 6.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| Sticker | Ready For Battlesticker · #4B69FF | 22.0% | $0.05 0.05 CSGOBIG_COIN | 2.0% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.24× |
| PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9 | 30.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.5% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.21× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1008, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Ready For Battlesticker · #4B69FFjaviSchz$0.620.62 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x
Sticker | Ready For Battlesticker · #4B69FFDefault Name$0.620.62 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9Default Name$0.620.62 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9Default Name$0.620.62 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9Default Name$0.620.62 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9the ghost of the uchiha$0.620.62 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.62 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.0%covert 0.1%classified 0.4%pink 1.0%#d32ee6 2.0%restricted 4.5%#8847ff 25.0%violet 15.0%#4B69FF 22.0%#B0C3D9 30.0%best hit —