Monopoly Money

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$62.00

62 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $55.80 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

117.07%

12 openings, odds method

Variance

71.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 26

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

8 openings · below min

7 days

10 openings · below min

30 days

12 openings · below min

since tracking started

12 openings · below min

-0.5%340.3%681.0%

Small sample. 12 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8	95.97%±584.4	—	odds
7d	10	88.07%±522.7	—	odds
30d	12	117.07%±477.2	—	odds
All	12	117.07%±477.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$44K 44,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,000	$10.1K 10,057 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$4,161 4,161 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$1,460 1,460 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 200	$950 950 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$435 435 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 50	$325 325 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.6%	2	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$150 150 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.4%	0	0.6	—
Cologne 2016 Overpass Souvenir Packagecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 14	$90.00 90 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.5%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	12.0%	$69.00 69 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.8%	3	1.4	2.08×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$15.00 15 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.3%	0	0.6	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	12.0%	$4.00 4 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	3	1.4	2.08×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF	25.0%	$1.00 1 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	2	3.0	0.67×
AUG \| Contractor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777	1 in 13	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.9	—
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	22.5%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	2	2.7	0.74×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1011, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$62.0062 CSGOBIG_COIN$69.0069 CSGOBIG_COIN1.11x2h

Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$62.0062 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.004 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x2h

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$62.0062 CSGOBIG_COIN$69.0069 CSGOBIG_COIN1.11x2h

Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$62.0062 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.004 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x2h

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Praetorian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF$62.0062 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x2h

★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covertrax$62.0062 CSGOBIG_COIN$325325 CSGOBIG_COIN5.24x2h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$62.0062 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x9h

Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$62.0062 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.004 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x9h

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Praetorian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF$62.0062 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x2d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$62.0062 CSGOBIG_COIN$69.0069 CSGOBIG_COIN1.11x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$62.00	90.00%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 15.6%extraordinary 5.1%classified 5.2%Base Grade 7.1%pink 12.0%#8847FF 25.0%#777777 7.5%#B0C3D9 22.5%best hit —