Golden Hour
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$400.00
400 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.93%
EV $359.74 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
150.16%
18 openings, odds method
Variance
22.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 18 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1014, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014sticker · high$400400 CSGOBIG_COIN$6,6506,650 CSGOBIG_COIN16.63x
★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$400400 CSGOBIG_COIN$4,1614,161 CSGOBIG_COIN10.40x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$400400 CSGOBIG_COIN$4,1614,161 CSGOBIG_COIN10.40x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9Getty$400400 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.93%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $400 | 89.93% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%extraordinary 1.5%epic 0.5%legendary 1.0%high 0.5%restricted 0.5%#777777 23.8%#B0C3D9 71.2%best hit $6,650 (16.63x)