Muffin

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$16.90

16.9 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.94%

EV $15.20 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

39.82%

19 openings, odds method

Variance

17.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 18

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

7 openings · below min

7 days

19 openings · below min

30 days

19 openings · below min

since tracking started

19 openings · below min

-0.5%157.3%315.0%

Small sample. 19 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	7	1.94%±312.6	—	odds
7d	19	39.82%±189.7	—	odds
30d	19	39.82%±189.7	—	odds
All	19	39.82%±189.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$2,743 2,743 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$880 880 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 1,000	$466 466 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 417	$234 234 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$131 131 CSGOBIG_COIN	17.2%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$92.00 92 CSGOBIG_COIN	18.2%	0	0.6	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$56.15 56.15 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.8%	2	0.8	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$32.78 32.78 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.8%	0	1.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	10.0%	$18.81 18.81 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.4%	0	1.9	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$10.95 10.95 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.6%	1	1.0	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 17	$6.61 6.61 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 13	$2.23 2.23 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	2	1.5	1.32×
Sticker \| Bananasticker · #4b69ff	10.0%	$0.94 0.94 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	0	1.9	0.00×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	46.6%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	14	8.8	1.58×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1021, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$16.9016.9 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x19m

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$16.9016.9 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x4h

PP-Bizon | High Roller (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6$16.9016.9 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.232.23 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x4h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$16.9016.9 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x4h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$16.9016.9 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covertDarth Dementia$16.9016.9 CSGOBIG_COIN$56.1556.15 CSGOBIG_COIN3.32x1d

USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$16.9016.9 CSGOBIG_COIN$56.1556.15 CSGOBIG_COIN3.32x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$16.90	89.94%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 27.3%rare 0.1%extraordinary 2.0%Ancient 6.0%#d32ee6 8.0%#4b69ff 10.0%#B0C3D9 46.6%best hit —