Dust II

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.71

1.71 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $1.54 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

29.54%

33 openings, odds method

Variance

284.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 556

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

19 openings · below min

30 days

33 openings · below min

since tracking started

33 openings · below min

-0.5%1170.0%2340.5%

Small sample. 33 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	0.58%±2339.3	—	odds
7d	19	39.43%±759.0	—	odds
30d	33	29.54%±575.9	—	odds
All	33	29.54%±575.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 33 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,046 2,046 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.3%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,324 1,324 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.6%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 10,000	$1,042 1,042 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$489 489 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$292 292 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$249 249 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$168 168 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$113 113 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.4%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF	1 in 200	$9.38 9.38 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$3.75 3.75 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.9%	1	0.7	—
FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$1.94 1.94 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.8%	1	2.3	0.43×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF	15.0%	$1.62 1.62 CSGOBIG_COIN	15.8%	5	5.0	1.01×
Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	10.0%	$0.47 0.47 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.1%	3	3.3	0.91×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	20.0%	$0.18 0.18 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.3%	7	6.6	1.06×
Sealed Graffiti \| Tombstone (Battle Green)graffiti · common	20.0%	$0.02 0.02 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	5	6.6	0.76×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	25.2%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	11	8.3	1.32×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1022, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$1.711.71 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x7h

Five-SeveN | Hot Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial$1.711.71 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.470.47 CSGOBIG_COIN0.27x1d

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF$1.711.71 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.621.62 CSGOBIG_COIN0.95x2d

Galil AR | Firefight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet$1.711.71 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.180.18 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x2d

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF$1.711.71 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.621.62 CSGOBIG_COIN0.95x2d

StatTrak™ AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedSQUIRTLE$1.711.71 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.753.75 CSGOBIG_COIN2.19x2d

Sealed Graffiti | Tombstone (Battle Green)graffiti · common$1.711.71 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.020.02 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x2d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$1.711.71 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x2d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$1.711.71 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$1.71	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%#EB4B4B 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%#8847FF 15.5%restricted 9.0%industrial 10.0%violet 20.0%common 20.0%#B0C3D9 25.2%best hit —