Inferno

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$7.56

7.56 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $6.80 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

49.59%

32 openings, odds method

Variance

79.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

12 openings · below min

7 days

29 openings · below min

30 days

32 openings · below min

since tracking started

32 openings · below min

-0.5%281.0%562.5%

Small sample. 32 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12	56.03%±505.7	—	odds
7d	29	47.35%±325.3	—	odds
30d	32	49.59%±309.7	—	odds
All	32	49.59%±309.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$3,440 3,440 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$2,995 2,995 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.4%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 10,000	$2,494 2,494 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,073 2,073 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$1,566 1,566 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.9%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$1,016 1,016 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$731 731 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$482 482 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$23.94 23.94 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.0%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$16.32 16.32 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.0%	0	1.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$12.32 12.32 CSGOBIG_COIN	18.1%	5	3.2	1.56×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	15.0%	$7.97 7.97 CSGOBIG_COIN	17.6%	5	4.8	1.04×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$2.89 2.89 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.4%	5	4.8	1.04×
CZ75-Auto \| Framework (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade	17.0%	$0.95 0.95 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.4%	4	5.4	0.74×
AUG \| Contractor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777	1 in 11	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	7	2.9	2.44×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	26.8%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	6	8.6	0.70×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1023, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$7.567.56 CSGOBIG_COIN$12.3212.32 CSGOBIG_COIN1.63x12h

AWP | Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$7.567.56 CSGOBIG_COIN$7.977.97 CSGOBIG_COIN1.05x12h

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New)weapon · restricted$7.567.56 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.892.89 CSGOBIG_COIN0.38x12h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$7.567.56 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x12h

AUG | Contractor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777$7.567.56 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x12h

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New)weapon · restricted$7.567.56 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.892.89 CSGOBIG_COIN0.38x12h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$7.567.56 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x12h

AUG | Contractor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777$7.567.56 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x12h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$7.567.56 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x12h

AUG | Contractor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777$7.567.56 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x12h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$7.56	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%Classified 0.0%classified 22.0%mil spec 10.0%restricted 15.0%Consumer Grade 17.0%#777777 8.9%#B0C3D9 26.8%best hit —