Mirage

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$5.25

5.25 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.01%

EV $4.73 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

31.30%

24 openings, odds method

Variance

62.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

12 openings · below min

7 days

24 openings · below min

30 days

24 openings · below min

since tracking started

24 openings · below min

-0.5%232.0%464.5%

Small sample. 24 openings and 3.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12	16.62%±447.2	—	odds
7d	24	31.30%±316.2	—	odds
30d	24	31.30%±316.2	—	odds
All	24	31.30%±316.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,914 2,914 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$1,894 1,894 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$1,340 1,340 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$1,128 1,128 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$910 910 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$669 669 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$446 446 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$244 244 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$130 130 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	0	0.0	—
ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Souvenir Packagecontainer · #B0C3D9	1 in 200	$52.97 52.97 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.6%	0	0.1	—
Boston 2018 Mirage Souvenir Packagecontainer · #B0C3D9	1 in 50	$30.39 30.39 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.9%	0	0.5	—
Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF	10.0%	$15.98 15.98 CSGOBIG_COIN	33.8%	1	2.4	0.42×
Mirage Pinpin · exotic	10.0%	$9.62 9.62 CSGOBIG_COIN	20.4%	1	2.4	0.42×
Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Packagecontainer · #B0C3D9	1 in 20	$3.09 3.09 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.3%	3	1.2	2.50×
10 Year Birthday Sticker Capsulecontainer · Base Grade	10.0%	$1.10 1.1 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.3%	4	2.4	1.67×
Sticker \| TV On Miragesticker · high	15.0%	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	1	3.6	0.28×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	47.4%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	14	11.4	1.23×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1024, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$5.255.25 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x15h

Sticker | TV On Miragesticker · high$5.255.25 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x15h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$5.255.25 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x15h

Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Packagecontainer · #B0C3D9$5.255.25 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.093.09 CSGOBIG_COIN0.59x15h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$5.255.25 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x15h

Rio 2022 Mirage Souvenir Packagecontainer · #B0C3D9$5.255.25 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.093.09 CSGOBIG_COIN0.59x15h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$5.255.25 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x15h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$5.25	90.01%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%covert knife 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%#B0C3D9 54.9%#8847FF 10.0%exotic 10.0%Base Grade 10.0%high 15.0%best hit —