Nuke

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$22.42

22.42 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $20.17 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

61.38%

16 openings, odds method

Variance

52.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 24

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

11 openings · below min

30 days

16 openings · below min

since tracking started

16 openings · below min

-0.5%243.0%486.5%

Small sample. 16 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	11	58.14%±427.6	—	odds
30d	16	61.38%±354.5	—	odds
All	16	61.38%±354.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$9,549 9,549 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 10,000	$7,346 7,346 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.6%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$5,350 5,350 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$3,459 3,459 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,969 1,969 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 1,000	$731 731 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.6%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$575 575 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 1,000	$429 429 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 333	$292 292 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$195 195 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 100	$153 153 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 50	$96.00 96 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.5%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$46.88 46.88 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.6%	2	0.8	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	15.0%	$27.29 27.29 CSGOBIG_COIN	20.3%	2	2.4	0.83×
FAMAS \| Styx (Factory New)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$11.97 11.97 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.9%	5	1.6	3.13×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$4.64 4.64 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Heat (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	20.0%	$2.99 2.99 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.0%	4	3.2	1.25×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	35.8%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	3	5.7	0.52×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1025, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$22.4222.42 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x4d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9ROSSI - SKINS$22.4222.42 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x4d

MAC-10 | Stalker (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$22.4222.42 CSGOBIG_COIN$27.2927.29 CSGOBIG_COIN1.22x4d

MAG-7 | Heat (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$22.4222.42 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.992.99 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x4d

FAMAS | Styx (Factory New)weapon · restricted$22.4222.42 CSGOBIG_COIN$11.9711.97 CSGOBIG_COIN0.53x4d

MAG-7 | Heat (Factory New)weapon · MythicalPhukFace$22.4222.42 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.992.99 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x5d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$22.4222.42 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x5d

FAMAS | Styx (Factory New)weapon · restricted$22.4222.42 CSGOBIG_COIN$11.9711.97 CSGOBIG_COIN0.53x5d

MAC-10 | Stalker (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$22.4222.42 CSGOBIG_COIN$27.2927.29 CSGOBIG_COIN1.22x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$22.42	89.99%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 17.6%contraband 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%epic 0.1%restricted 10.1%gold 0.1%covert knife 0.3%#eb4b4b 1.0%classified 15.0%Mythical 20.0%#B0C3D9 35.8%best hit —