Overpass
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$50.00
50 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $44.98 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
144.41%
7 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 7 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1026, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN$149149 CSGOBIG_COIN2.98x
Sticker | Lucky (Gold) | Berlin 2019sticker · #EB4B4B$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN$68.5368.53 CSGOBIG_COIN1.37x
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeRassel$50.0050 CSGOBIG_COIN$103103 CSGOBIG_COIN2.07x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $50.00 | 89.97% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 37.9%classified 0.1%covert knife 18.6%#EB4B4B 10.4%restricted 11.2%red 8.8%Restricted 5.0%#B0C3D9 4.7%Industrial Grade 2.0%Legendary 1.4%best hit —