Cobblestone

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.00

1 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $0.90 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

26.20%

45 openings, odds method

Variance

2979.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 10,000

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

18 openings · below min

7 days

45 openings · below min

30 days

45 openings · below min

since tracking started

45 openings · below min

-0.5%1285.5%2571.5%

Small sample. 45 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	18	49.11%±2521.6	—	odds
7d	45	26.20%±1594.8	—	odds
30d	45	26.20%±1594.8	—	odds
All	45	26.20%±1594.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 45 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$5,425 5,425 CSGOBIG_COIN	60.3%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$598 598 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.6%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Royal Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 400	$15.50 15.5 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.3%	0	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Storm (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 200	$8.27 8.27 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.6%	0	0.2	—
UMP-45 \| Indigo (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 100	$3.18 3.18 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	1	0.5	—
10 Year Birthday Sticker Capsulecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 33	$1.50 1.5 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.0%	1	1.3	0.74×
Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Briar (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 20	$0.99 0.99 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.5%	2	2.3	0.89×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.75 0.75 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	1	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	10.0%	$0.40 0.4 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.4%	7	4.5	1.56×
MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	15.0%	$0.15 0.15 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.5%	7	6.8	1.04×
Galil AR \| VariCamo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5E98D9	25.0%	$0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	9	11.3	0.80×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	38.2%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	17	17.2	0.99×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1029, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Indigo (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.183.18 CSGOBIG_COIN3.18x18m

Souvenir Dual Berettas | Briar (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.990.99 CSGOBIG_COIN0.99x18m

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x18m

MP9 | Deadly Poison (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.150.15 CSGOBIG_COIN0.15x18m

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.400.4 CSGOBIG_COIN0.40x18m

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9amarilo$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x18m

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.400.4 CSGOBIG_COIN0.40x2h

10 Year Birthday Sticker Capsulecontainer · Base Grade$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.501.5 CSGOBIG_COIN1.50x2h

MP9 | Deadly Poison (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.150.15 CSGOBIG_COIN0.15x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$1.00	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%restricted 0.0%industrial 10.3%Consumer Grade 5.5%consumer 1.0%Base Grade 3.0%mil spec 2.0%#4b69ff 15.0%#5E98D9 25.0%#B0C3D9 38.2%best hit —