Pistols Only

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$6.65

6.65 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $5.99 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

36.86%

21 openings, odds method

Variance

14.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

56.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

15 openings · below min

30 days

21 openings · below min

since tracking started

21 openings · below min

-0.5%110.3%221.0%

Small sample. 21 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	15	27.48%±193.0	—	odds
30d	21	36.86%±163.1	—	odds
All	21	36.86%±163.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$1,529 1,529 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.6%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 10,000	$757 757 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.3%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$547 547 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$424 424 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 1,000	$241 241 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.0%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 500	$182 182 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.1%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$135 135 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.5%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$83.03 83.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.2%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$58.97 58.97 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.9%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Undertow (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$35.93 35.93 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.0%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 143	$26.93 26.93 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.1%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$16.20 16.2 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.7%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 20	$10.56 10.56 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.8%	0	1.1	0.00×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	15.0%	$8.14 8.14 CSGOBIG_COIN	20.4%	2	3.1	0.63×
P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	20.0%	$6.92 6.92 CSGOBIG_COIN	23.1%	4	4.2	0.95×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	10.0%	$2.12 2.12 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	2	2.1	0.95×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$0.64 0.64 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.6%	3	3.1	0.95×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	20.0%	$0.22 0.22 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.7%	6	4.2	1.43×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	11.0%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	4	2.3	1.73×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	1 in 244	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.1	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1033, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedMewtuber$6.656.65 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.926.92 CSGOBIG_COIN1.04x4d

Glock-18 | Weasel (Well-Worn)weapon · violetMewtuber$6.656.65 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.220.22 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x4d

Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$6.656.65 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.122.12 CSGOBIG_COIN0.32x4d

USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$6.656.65 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.640.64 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x4d

P250 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$6.656.65 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.926.92 CSGOBIG_COIN1.04x4d

Glock-18 | Weasel (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$6.656.65 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.220.22 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x4d

Glock-18 | Weasel (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$6.656.65 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.220.22 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x5d

P250 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$6.656.65 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.926.92 CSGOBIG_COIN1.04x5d

P250 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$6.656.65 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x5d

Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$6.656.65 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.122.12 CSGOBIG_COIN0.32x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$6.65	90.00%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 15.1%rare 0.0%Restricted 0.1%mil spec 0.2%classified 31.5%Ancient 0.7%covert 16.0%#d32ee6 5.0%violet 20.0%consumer 11.0%#B0C3D9 0.4%best hit —