Chroma 2

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$2.52

2.52 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $2.27 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

53.54%

28 openings, odds method

Variance

261.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 111

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

27 openings · below min

30 days

28 openings · below min

since tracking started

28 openings · below min

-0.5%330.8%662.0%

Small sample. 28 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	27	50.72%±610.4	—	odds
30d	28	53.54%±599.4	—	odds
All	28	53.54%±599.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 10,000	$3,005 3,005 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,045 2,045 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.0%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,503 1,503 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 10,000	$723 723 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$519 519 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$353 353 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$134 134 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Eco (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$107 107 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$49.62 49.62 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 189	$33.29 33.29 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.8%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Djinn (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$12.96 12.96 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.3%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 25	$7.10 7.1 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.5%	1	1.1	0.89×
MAG-7 \| Heat (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$3.27 3.27 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.2%	6	1.4	4.29×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	10.0%	$2.67 2.67 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.8%	3	2.8	1.07×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$1.15 1.15 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.5%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$0.81 0.81 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.5%	1	2.0	0.51×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$0.33 0.33 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.3%	3	2.5	1.19×
Sawed-Off \| Origami (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.28 0.28 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	2	2.8	0.71×
MP7 \| Armor Core (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	13.0%	$0.11 0.11 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	5	3.6	1.37×
Negev \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	15.0%	$0.08 0.08 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	1	4.2	0.24×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	20.0%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	6	5.6	1.07×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1035, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$2.522.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$2.522.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.330.33 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x1d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$2.522.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$2.522.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.280.28 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x1d

CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff$2.522.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.672.67 CSGOBIG_COIN1.06x1d

MAG-7 | Heat (Factory New)weapon · MythicalOlematon$2.522.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.273.27 CSGOBIG_COIN1.30x1d

MP7 | Armor Core (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$2.522.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.110.11 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x2d

MAG-7 | Heat (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$2.522.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.273.27 CSGOBIG_COIN1.30x2d

Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$2.522.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.330.33 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$2.52	90.00%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%classified 1.7%Restricted 4.0%Mythical 5.0%#8847ff 10.0%Rare 5.0%restricted 7.0%mil spec 32.0%#4b69ff 15.0%#B0C3D9 20.0%best hit —