Clutch

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.87

1.87 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $1.68 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d

37.90%

161 openings, odds method

Variance

584.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 769

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

92.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

24 openings · below min

7 days

148 openings · below min

30 days

161 openings · below min

since tracking started

161 openings · below min

-0.5%500.0%1000.5%

Small sample. 161 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	24	32.69%±967.0	—	odds
7d	148	37.11%±389.4	—	odds
30d	161	37.90%±373.3	—	odds
All	161	37.90%±373.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 161 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$4,018 4,018 CSGOBIG_COIN	23.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$1,725 1,725 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$876 876 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 10,000	$378 378 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$228 228 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$166 166 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$133 133 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.9%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$105 105 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$80.07 80.07 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$53.79 53.79 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 400	$30.13 30.13 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.5%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 200	$19.99 19.99 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.9%	1	0.8	—
AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 200	$9.64 9.64 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.9%	2	0.8	—
AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$6.91 6.91 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.1%	2	1.6	1.24×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 50	$5.12 5.12 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.1%	2	3.2	0.62×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$1.94 1.94 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	4	4.8	0.83×
Nova \| Wild Six (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$1.13 1.13 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.7%	13	6.4	2.02×
Negev \| Lionfish (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$1.05 1.05 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.1%	5	8.1	0.62×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 17	$0.77 0.77 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.7%	7	9.7	0.72×
R8 Revolver \| Grip (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$0.24 0.24 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	14	12.9	1.09×
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 11	$0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	18	14.5	1.24×
XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.19 0.19 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	26	16.1	1.61×
SG 553 \| Aloha (Factory New)weapon · blue	13.0%	$0.18 0.18 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	21	20.9	1.00×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$0.05 0.05 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	20	24.1	0.83×
PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	12.0%	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	10	19.3	0.52×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	10.4%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	16	16.8	0.95×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1036, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$1.871.87 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.770.77 CSGOBIG_COIN0.41x26m

XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$1.871.87 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.190.19 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x26m

Negev | Lionfish (Factory New)weapon · restricted$1.871.87 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.051.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.56x26m

Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Factory New)weapon · milspec$1.871.87 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.230.23 CSGOBIG_COIN0.12x26m

XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$1.871.87 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.190.19 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x26m

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$1.871.87 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x26m

Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical$1.871.87 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.770.77 CSGOBIG_COIN0.41x26m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$1.87	90.00%	26

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.3%epic 0.0%covert 0.1%Legendary 0.8%Ancient 0.5%classified 1.0%#8847ff 2.0%restricted 12.0%Mythical 6.0%mil spec 33.0%milspec 9.0%blue 13.0%#4b69ff 12.0%#B0C3D9 10.4%best hit —