Prisma

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$2.92

2.92 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $2.63 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

45.90%

40 openings, odds method

Variance

424.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 192

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

5 openings · below min

7 days

28 openings · below min

30 days

40 openings · below min

since tracking started

40 openings · below min

-0.5%907.5%1815.5%

Small sample. 40 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5	9.52%±1805.3	—	odds
7d	28	38.17%±762.9	—	odds
30d	40	45.90%±638.3	—	odds
All	40	45.90%±638.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$5,565 5,565 CSGOBIG_COIN	21.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 10,000	$1,537 1,537 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,150 1,150 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 10,000	$795 795 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$520 520 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$480 480 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$270 270 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$208 208 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 5,000	$201 201 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 5,000	$149 149 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$127 127 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$125 125 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$88.26 88.26 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Incinegator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$47.35 47.35 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$26.70 26.7 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$14.17 14.17 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.7%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$5.46 5.46 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.4%	4	2.0	2.00×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$3.90 3.9 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.4%	1	2.0	0.50×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Gauss (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	10.0%	$3.50 3.5 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.3%	4	4.0	1.00×
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$1.86 1.86 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	1	2.0	0.50×
R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$1.26 1.26 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.4%	3	2.0	1.50×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 14	$0.98 0.98 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.6%	1	2.8	0.36×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Akoben (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 13	$0.82 0.82 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.5%	4	3.2	1.25×
UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$0.51 0.51 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	1	3.6	0.28×
FAMAS \| Crypsis (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$0.40 0.4 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	3	2.0	1.50×
P90 \| Off World (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	4	4.0	1.00×
P250 \| Verdigris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$0.17 0.17 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	3	3.2	0.94×
MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$0.15 0.15 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	4	2.8	1.43×
MP7 \| Mischief (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$0.09 0.09 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	2	2.0	1.00×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	1 in 10	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	5	4.0	1.25×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1038, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$2.922.92 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x3h

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Akoben (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$2.922.92 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.820.82 CSGOBIG_COIN0.28x3h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$2.922.92 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x3h

FAMAS | Crypsis (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$2.922.92 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.400.4 CSGOBIG_COIN0.14x4h

MAC-10 | Whitefish (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec$2.922.92 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.150.15 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x4h

AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$2.922.92 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.465.46 CSGOBIG_COIN1.87x1d

Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Factory New)weapon · restricted$2.922.92 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.861.86 CSGOBIG_COIN0.64x1d

R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$2.922.92 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.261.26 CSGOBIG_COIN0.43x1d

P250 | Verdigris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$2.922.92 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.170.17 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$2.92	90.00%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.4%epic 0.0%#EB4B4B 0.0%classified 5.6%restricted 24.0%Restricted 10.0%Rare 7.0%milspec 8.0%mil spec 35.0%#B0C3D9 10.0%best hit —