Danger Zone

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.61

1.61 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $1.45 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d

41.53%

38 openings, odds method

Variance

457.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 1,000

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

26 openings · below min

30 days

38 openings · below min

since tracking started

38 openings · below min

-0.5%1516.3%3033.0%

Small sample. 38 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	67.39%±2964.8	—	odds
7d	26	49.14%±822.3	—	odds
30d	38	41.53%±680.2	—	odds
All	38	41.53%±680.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 10,000	$2,783 2,783 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 10,000	$1,418 1,418 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,024 1,024 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 10,000	$660 660 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$401 401 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$308 308 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$249 249 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 5,000	$209 209 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 5,000	$182 182 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 3,333	$145 145 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$73.68 73.68 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$73.61 73.61 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,000	$22.45 22.45 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	0	0.0	—
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$9.19 9.19 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.3%	1	0.4	—
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$4.32 4.32 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.0%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$2.36 2.36 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.9%	0	1.1	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$1.98 1.98 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.1%	2	1.1	1.75×
P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$1.76 1.76 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.9%	2	1.5	1.32×
USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$1.26 1.26 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.3%	2	1.9	1.05×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$0.58 0.58 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.8%	4	2.7	1.50×
Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$0.41 0.41 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.3%	3	3.0	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 17	$0.41 0.41 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	3	2.3	1.32×
G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$0.27 0.27 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	0	3.4	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$0.24 0.24 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	1	2.7	0.38×
Nova \| Wood Fired (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.11 0.11 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	3	3.8	0.79×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	15.0%	$0.08 0.08 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	10	5.7	1.75×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	20.7%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	7	7.9	0.89×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1039, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · RareDefault Name$1.611.61 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.410.41 CSGOBIG_COIN0.25x20h

P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restrictedLiudmila doroceanc$1.611.61 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.761.76 CSGOBIG_COIN1.09x20h

Tec-9 | Fubar (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$1.611.61 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.580.58 CSGOBIG_COIN0.36x1d

Galil AR | Signal (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$1.611.61 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.410.41 CSGOBIG_COIN0.25x1d

MP9 | Modest Threat (Well-Worn)weapon · blue$1.611.61 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.080.08 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x1d

UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified$1.611.61 CSGOBIG_COIN$9.199.19 CSGOBIG_COIN5.71x1d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$1.611.61 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x3d

MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Factory New)weapon · restricted$1.611.61 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.981.98 CSGOBIG_COIN1.23x3d

MP9 | Modest Threat (Well-Worn)weapon · blue$1.611.61 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.080.08 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$1.61	90.00%	27

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%epic 0.0%covert 0.1%#EB4B4B 0.0%covert knife 0.1%Legendary 0.1%classified 2.0%mil spec 27.0%restricted 29.0%Rare 6.0%blue 15.0%#B0C3D9 20.7%best hit —