Datawipe

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$28.78

28.78 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.98%

EV $25.90 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

100.03%

5 openings, odds method

Variance

297.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

62.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

5 openings · below min

30 days

5 openings · below min

since tracking started

5 openings · below min

-0.5%806.3%1613.0%

Small sample. 5 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	5	100.03%±1512.1	—	odds
30d	5	100.03%±1512.1	—	odds
All	5	100.03%±1512.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$42.5K 42,472 CSGOBIG_COIN	16.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$20.1K 20,122 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$12.4K 12,378 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 10,000	$8,567 8,567 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 10,000	$5,431 5,431 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$74.00 74 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.3%	1	0.3	—
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 14	$45.59 45.59 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.3%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$35.76 35.76 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.8%	0	0.5	—
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	15.0%	$29.65 29.65 CSGOBIG_COIN	17.2%	2	0.8	—
MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$10.64 10.64 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.2%	1	0.8	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	25.0%	$1.95 1.95 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.9%	0	1.3	0.00×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	22.9%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	1	1.1	0.87×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1046, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$28.7828.78 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x5d

Souvenir Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$28.7828.78 CSGOBIG_COIN$29.6529.65 CSGOBIG_COIN1.03x5d

MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$28.7828.78 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.6410.64 CSGOBIG_COIN0.37x5d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$28.7828.78 CSGOBIG_COIN$74.0074 CSGOBIG_COIN2.57x5d

Souvenir Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$28.7828.78 CSGOBIG_COIN$29.6529.65 CSGOBIG_COIN1.03x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$28.78	89.98%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 0.0%epic 0.0%legendary 0.0%classified 15.0%#8847ff 7.0%restricted 15.0%mil spec 15.0%pink 25.0%#B0C3D9 22.9%best hit —