Bloodlust

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$28.65

28.65 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.98%

EV $25.78 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

39.64%

14 openings, odds method

Variance

44.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 41

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

9 openings · below min

30 days

14 openings · below min

since tracking started

14 openings · below min

-0.5%356.8%714.0%

Small sample. 14 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	60.13%±653.3	—	odds
7d	9	51.95%±435.5	—	odds
30d	14	39.64%±349.2	—	odds
All	14	39.64%±349.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$14.5K 14,532 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.6%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$2,500 2,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 143	$500 500 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 67	$280 280 CSGOBIG_COIN	16.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$85.00 85 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$75.00 75 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.7%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25	$65.00 65 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.1%	2	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$30.00 30 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.1%	0	1.0	—
FAMAS \| Styx (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$25.00 25 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.8%	1	1.1	0.89×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Battle-Scarred)weapon · light blue	25.0%	$3.89 3.89 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.8%	1	3.5	0.29×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	48.6%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	10	6.8	1.47×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1047, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$28.6528.65 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x2h

AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Battle-Scarred)weapon · light blue$28.6528.65 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.893.89 CSGOBIG_COIN0.14x2h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$28.6528.65 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x2h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$28.6528.65 CSGOBIG_COIN$65.0065 CSGOBIG_COIN2.27x8h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$28.6528.65 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$28.6528.65 CSGOBIG_COIN$65.0065 CSGOBIG_COIN2.27x1d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$28.6528.65 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$28.65	89.98%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 16.7%classified 0.2%#ffd700 1.5%restricted 8.0%light blue 25.0%#B0C3D9 48.6%best hit —