Oblivion

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$635.00

635 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.97%

EV $571.33 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

139.11%

6 openings, odds method

Variance

4.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

6 openings · below min

30 days

6 openings · below min

since tracking started

6 openings · below min

-0.5%156.8%314.0%

Small sample. 6 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	6	139.11%±174.2	—	odds
30d	6	139.11%±174.2	—	odds
All	6	139.11%±174.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$22.3K 22,275 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 5,000	$19K 19,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$16K 16,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,000	$13.5K 13,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$12K 12,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,000	$10.5K 10,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 333	$9,000 9,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 333	$7,000 7,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 100	$6,000 6,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$5,000 5,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 100	$3,500 3,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50	$2,800 2,800 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.8%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 33	$2,150 2,150 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 25	$1,200 1,200 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.4%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 14	$1,100 1,100 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.5%	1	0.4	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 13	$700 700 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.8%	2	0.5	—
AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	30.0%	$100 100 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	42.0%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	2	2.5	0.79×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1049, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$635635 CSGOBIG_COIN$2,8002,800 CSGOBIG_COIN4.41x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covertDabbed | 7k weekly LB$635635 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,1001,100 CSGOBIG_COIN1.73x5d

★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$635635 CSGOBIG_COIN$700700 CSGOBIG_COIN1.10x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$635635 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x5d

★ Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$635635 CSGOBIG_COIN$700700 CSGOBIG_COIN1.10x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$635635 CSGOBIG_COIN$2,8002,800 CSGOBIG_COIN4.41x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covertDabbed | 7k weekly LB$635635 CSGOBIG_COIN$1,1001,100 CSGOBIG_COIN1.73x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$635	89.97%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 1.1%legendary 3.0%covert 22.5%epic 0.3%knifes 1.0%classified 30.0%#B0C3D9 42.0%best hit $2,800 (4.41x)