Disco

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.14

4.14 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.96%

EV $3.72 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

118.53%

11 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

27.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

43.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

11 openings · below min

30 days

11 openings · below min

since tracking started

11 openings · below min

47.5%118.5%189.5%

Small sample. 11 openings and 3.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	11	118.53%±70.4	—	odds
30d	11	118.53%±70.4	—	odds
All	11	118.53%±70.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$187 187 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$143 143 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$129 129 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$98.40 98.4 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$73.49 73.49 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$27.88 27.88 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.5%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$14.79 14.79 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$10.73 10.73 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.4%	2	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$6.98 6.98 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.4%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Battle-Scarred)weapon · light blue	15.0%	$5.86 5.86 CSGOBIG_COIN	23.6%	3	1.6	1.82×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 20	$5.31 5.31 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.1%	1	0.6	—
Sticker \| Loving Eyes (Holo)sticker · #8847ff	25.0%	$4.34 4.34 CSGOBIG_COIN	29.1%	2	2.8	0.73×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	25.0%	$0.47 0.47 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.2%	2	2.8	0.73×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	17.9%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	1	2.0	0.51×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1050, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MP7 | Cirrus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Rare$4.144.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.470.47 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x3d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9RTZ l S2LuKes$4.144.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x3d

Sticker | Loving Eyes (Holo)sticker · #8847ffRTZ l S2LuKes$4.144.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.344.34 CSGOBIG_COIN1.05x3d

AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Battle-Scarred)weapon · light blue$4.144.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.865.86 CSGOBIG_COIN1.42x4d

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$4.144.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.7310.73 CSGOBIG_COIN2.59x4d

M4A4 | Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient$4.144.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.315.31 CSGOBIG_COIN1.28x4d

AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Battle-Scarred)weapon · light blue$4.144.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.865.86 CSGOBIG_COIN1.42x5d

Sticker | Loving Eyes (Holo)sticker · #8847ff$4.144.14 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.344.34 CSGOBIG_COIN1.05x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$4.14	89.96%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 6.0%extraordinary 0.0%covert 1.0%pink 5.0%light blue 15.0%Ancient 5.0%#8847ff 25.0%Rare 25.0%#B0C3D9 17.9%best hit —