Ovni

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$45.24

45.24 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $40.72 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.01%

14 openings, odds method

Variance

5.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

63.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

14 openings · below min

30 days

14 openings · below min

since tracking started

14 openings · below min

-0.5%104.5%209.5%

Small sample. 14 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	14	89.01%±119.8	—	odds
30d	14	89.01%±119.8	—	odds
All	14	89.01%±119.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$2,342 2,342 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 1,000	$985 985 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 400	$497 497 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$399 399 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 100	$299 299 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$248 248 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.2%	1	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$164 164 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.1%	0	0.3	—
MAC-10 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 20	$74.20 74.2 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.1%	1	0.7	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	10.0%	$58.64 58.64 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.4%	0	1.4	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	15.0%	$49.13 49.13 CSGOBIG_COIN	18.1%	4	2.1	1.90×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	10.0%	$19.96 19.96 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.9%	1	1.4	0.71×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	10.0%	$9.98 9.98 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.5%	1	1.4	0.71×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	20.0%	$4.88 4.88 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.4%	3	2.8	1.07×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	23.6%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	3	3.3	0.91×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1051, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$45.2445.24 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.884.88 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x1d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$45.2445.24 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$45.2445.24 CSGOBIG_COIN$9.989.98 CSGOBIG_COIN0.22x1d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$45.2445.24 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$45.2445.24 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x2d

SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert$45.2445.24 CSGOBIG_COIN$49.1349.13 CSGOBIG_COIN1.09x2d

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$45.2445.24 CSGOBIG_COIN$19.9619.96 CSGOBIG_COIN0.44x2d

M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedPearso$45.2445.24 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.884.88 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x4d

M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$45.2445.24 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.884.88 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x4d

MAC-10 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade$45.2445.24 CSGOBIG_COIN$74.2074.2 CSGOBIG_COIN1.64x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$45.24	90.00%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 30.1%epic 0.1%covert 38.2%Covert 1.0%extraordinary 2.0%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%#B0C3D9 23.6%best hit —