Pizza
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.31
20.31 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $18.28 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.74%
14 openings, odds method
Variance
4.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 14 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1052, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertSKY$20.3120.31 CSGOBIG_COIN$33.9433.94 CSGOBIG_COIN1.67x
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$20.3120.31 CSGOBIG_COIN$9.009 CSGOBIG_COIN0.44x
StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$20.3120.31 CSGOBIG_COIN$22.9822.98 CSGOBIG_COIN1.13x
FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)weapon · restricted✪ meschiattiNTC|DABLIU$20.3120.31 CSGOBIG_COIN$11.8611.86 CSGOBIG_COIN0.58x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$20.3120.31 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$20.3120.31 CSGOBIG_COIN$9.009 CSGOBIG_COIN0.44x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.31 | 90.01% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.1%covert 6.5%Extraordinary 0.2%classified 42.4%gold 0.4%covert knife 0.5%Covert 0.5%#eb4b4b 0.7%Mil Spec Grade 1.0%restricted 20.0%#B0C3D9 27.7%best hit —