Candy Craze
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$29.52
29.52 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $26.57 from 18 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.52%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
6.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1058, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified$29.5229.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.984.98 CSGOBIG_COIN0.17x
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert$29.5229.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$174174 CSGOBIG_COIN5.90x
AWP | Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$29.5229.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$36.4836.48 CSGOBIG_COIN1.24x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$29.5229.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified$29.5229.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$4.984.98 CSGOBIG_COIN0.17x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9Jörgen van der gurt$29.5229.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $29.52 | 90.01% | 18 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 17.7%restricted 15.1%#EB4B4B 0.1%covert knife 0.5%classified 35.0%#B0C3D9 31.6%best hit —