Crystal Collar

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$81.10

81.1 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.95%

EV $72.95 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

70.15%

6 openings, odds method

Variance

4.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

6 openings · below min

30 days

6 openings · below min

since tracking started

6 openings · below min

-0.5%120.8%242.0%

Small sample. 6 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	6	70.15%±171.4	—	odds
30d	6	70.15%±171.4	—	odds
All	6	70.15%±171.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$5,127 5,127 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,948 1,948 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 1,000	$1,403 1,403 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.9%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,246 1,246 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Team Dignitas (Holo) \| Cologne 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 500	$1,114 1,114 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · rare	1 in 500	$855 855 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$659 659 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$386 386 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$346 346 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 50	$299 299 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 33	$245 245 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.1%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$198 198 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.9%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20	$147 147 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.1%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$124 124 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.5%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	10.0%	$97.42 97.42 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.4%	3	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	25.0%	$24.55 24.55 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.4%	2	1.5	1.33×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Isaac (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$9.88 9.88 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	0	0.9	—
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	27.8%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	1	1.7	0.60×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1060, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$81.1081.1 CSGOBIG_COIN$97.4297.42 CSGOBIG_COIN1.20x3d

M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$81.1081.1 CSGOBIG_COIN$24.5524.55 CSGOBIG_COIN0.30x3d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$81.1081.1 CSGOBIG_COIN$97.4297.42 CSGOBIG_COIN1.20x3d

M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$81.1081.1 CSGOBIG_COIN$24.5524.55 CSGOBIG_COIN0.30x3d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert$81.1081.1 CSGOBIG_COIN$97.4297.42 CSGOBIG_COIN1.20x3d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9waterland$81.1081.1 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$81.10	89.95%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 25.8%remarkable 0.2%rare 0.2%classified 31.0%mil spec 15.0%#B0C3D9 27.8%best hit —