Gummy Gain

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$420.00
420 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $377.93 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
0.96%
7 openings, odds method
Variance
140.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 500
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
30 days
7 openings · below min
since tracking started
7 openings · below min
-0.5%439.0%878.5%

Small sample. 7 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d0———
30d70.96%±876.9—odds
All70.96%±876.9—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary1 in 2,000$125K 125,000 CSGOBIG_COIN16.5%00.0—
AK-47 | Wild Lotus - 4x IBP (Factory New)weapon · #EB4B4B1 in 2,000$100K 100,000 CSGOBIG_COIN13.2%00.0—
AWP | Gungnir - 3x IBP (Factory New)weapon · #EB4B4B1 in 2,000$90K 90,000 CSGOBIG_COIN11.9%00.0—
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 2,000$70.1K 70,107 CSGOBIG_COIN9.3%00.0—
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 2,000$54.7K 54,708 CSGOBIG_COIN7.2%00.0—
Sticker | Team Dignitas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 2,000$42.1K 42,064 CSGOBIG_COIN5.6%00.0—
Sticker | Team LDLC.com (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 2,000$40.5K 40,506 CSGOBIG_COIN5.4%00.0—
Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 2,000$35.1K 35,069 CSGOBIG_COIN4.6%00.0—
Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable1 in 2,000$28K 28,043 CSGOBIG_COIN3.7%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl1 in 2,000$25.2K 25,250 CSGOBIG_COIN3.3%00.0—
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 2,000$22.4K 22,434 CSGOBIG_COIN3.0%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 2,000$19.3K 19,334 CSGOBIG_COIN2.6%00.0—
★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 2,000$16.7K 16,685 CSGOBIG_COIN2.2%00.0—
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 2,000$14.3K 14,299 CSGOBIG_COIN1.9%00.0—
★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 2,000$13.6K 13,607 CSGOBIG_COIN1.8%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 2,000$12.6K 12,619 CSGOBIG_COIN1.7%00.0—
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 2,000$10.9K 10,926 CSGOBIG_COIN1.4%00.0—
AWP | Gungnir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 2,000$9,118 9,118 CSGOBIG_COIN1.2%00.0—
★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 2,000$7,949 7,949 CSGOBIG_COIN1.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary1 in 2,000$7,251 7,251 CSGOBIG_COIN1.0%00.0—
Sticker | Sticker Bomb Surf Ava (Foil)sticker · exotic58.0%$9.38 9.38 CSGOBIG_COIN1.4%34.10.74×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D941.0%$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.0%42.91.39×
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1061, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$42089.98%22
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%#EB4B4B 0.1%covert 0.5%remarkable 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%exotic 58.0%#B0C3D9 41.0%best hit —