Toxic Zone

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.15

1.15 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $1.04 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

57.61%

32 openings, odds method

Variance

39.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 26

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

32 openings · below min

30 days

32 openings · below min

since tracking started

32 openings · below min

-0.5%369.8%740.0%

Small sample. 32 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	29.57%±709.6	—	odds
7d	32	57.61%±217.3	—	odds
30d	32	57.61%±217.3	—	odds
All	32	57.61%±217.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$358 358 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$286 286 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$218 218 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$183 183 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$120 120 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$87.92 87.92 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.2%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$68.00 68 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$58.40 58.4 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$29.00 29 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 200	$15.00 15 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF	1 in 100	$8.00 8 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.7%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$5.00 5 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.7%	0	0.6	—
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 20	$2.00 2 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.7%	1	1.6	0.63×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	20.0%	$1.00 1 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.3%	6	6.4	0.94×
Sticker \| Hello AWPsticker · High Grade	25.0%	$0.48 0.48 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.6%	8	8.0	1.00×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	25.0%	$0.21 0.21 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.1%	6	8.0	0.75×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	21.2%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	10	6.8	1.48×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1069, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$1.151.15 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.87x16h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$1.151.15 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x16h

M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New)weapon · milspec$1.151.15 CSGOBIG_COIN$2.002 CSGOBIG_COIN1.74x1d

AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$1.151.15 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.210.21 CSGOBIG_COIN0.18x1d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$1.151.15 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x2d

Sticker | Hello AWPsticker · High Grade$1.151.15 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.480.48 CSGOBIG_COIN0.42x2d

AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec$1.151.15 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.001 CSGOBIG_COIN0.87x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$1.15	90.00%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%red 0.0%classified 0.6%restricted 2.1%#4B69FF 1.0%milspec 5.0%mil spec 20.0%High Grade 25.0%industrial 25.0%#B0C3D9 21.2%best hit —