Cutting Costs

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$35.87

35.87 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.10%

EV $32.32 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.77%

6 openings, odds method

Variance

2.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

6 openings · below min

30 days

6 openings · below min

since tracking started

6 openings · below min

-0.5%100.8%202.0%

Small sample. 6 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	6	81.77%±119.6	—	odds
30d	6	81.77%±119.6	—	odds
All	6	81.77%±119.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn)weapon · contraband	1 in 10,000	$3,549 3,549 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,087	$1,047 1,047 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,011	$294 294 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Snake Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 380	$147 147 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	10.5%	$91.19 91.19 CSGOBIG_COIN	29.6%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Serum (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	15.3%	$48.38 48.38 CSGOBIG_COIN	22.9%	0	0.9	—
Cmdr. Davida 'Goggles' Fernandez \| SEAL Frogmanagent · red	18.7%	$29.07 29.07 CSGOBIG_COIN	16.8%	1	1.1	0.89×
Sticker \| disco doplan (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017sticker · #D32CE6	17.6%	$19.51 19.51 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.6%	1	1.1	0.95×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	11.7%	$14.25 14.25 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.2%	1	0.7	—
Souvenir USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	25.7%	$10.98 10.98 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.7%	2	1.5	1.30×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1072, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | disco doplan (Foil) | Atlanta 2017sticker · #D32CE6$35.8735.87 CSGOBIG_COIN$19.5119.51 CSGOBIG_COIN0.54x4d

★ Gut Knife | Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeMexi$35.8735.87 CSGOBIG_COIN$91.1991.19 CSGOBIG_COIN2.54x4d

Souvenir USP-S | Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$35.8735.87 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.9810.98 CSGOBIG_COIN0.31x4d

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert$35.8735.87 CSGOBIG_COIN$14.2514.25 CSGOBIG_COIN0.40x5d

Souvenir USP-S | Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$35.8735.87 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.9810.98 CSGOBIG_COIN0.31x5d

Cmdr. Davida 'Goggles' Fernandez | SEAL Frogmanagent · redPOTATO$35.8735.87 CSGOBIG_COIN$29.0729.07 CSGOBIG_COIN0.81x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.10%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$35.87	90.10%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%covert 0.1%mil spec 0.3%covert knife 10.5%classified 15.3%red 18.7%#D32CE6 17.6%Covert 11.7%Restricted 25.7%best hit —