Koi Pond
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$342.55
343 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $308.24 from 28 items
Observed RTP, 30d
4.43%
2 openings, odds method
Variance
36.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 75
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 2 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1078, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$343343 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.9610.96 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x
Sticker | KSCERATO (Gold) | Rio 2022sticker · #EB4B4B$343343 CSGOBIG_COIN$19.4119.41 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $343 | 89.98% | 28 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.1%extraordinary 0.2%base 0.1%covert 5.5%legendary 0.2%contraband 0.3%Covert 0.5%epic 0.7%high 1.0%covert knife 19.1%#ffd700 13.6%classified 23.5%#EB4B4B 27.9%milspec 7.3%best hit —