Riddle
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.60
0.6 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $0.54 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
43.84%
23 openings, odds method
Variance
242.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 66
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 23 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1091, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$0.600.6 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
Sticker | ANNIHILATION (Holo) | Rio 2022sticker · #D32CE6$0.600.6 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.680.68 CSGOBIG_COIN1.13x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$0.600.6 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x
Sticker | Bum A Smokesticker · High GradeDefault Name$0.600.6 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.050.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.60 | 90.00% | 17 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%classified 0.0%Covert 0.1%restricted 10.1%Mil Spec Grade 0.2%pink 1.0%Consumer Grade 2.0%milspec 3.0%#D32CE6 10.0%#4B69FF 10.0%Rare 15.0%High Grade 25.0%#B0C3D9 23.5%best hit —