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A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.10
0.1 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.54%
EV $0.09 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
10.00%
191 openings, odds method
Variance
1315.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 3,333
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 191 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 191 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $274 274 CSGOBIG_COIN | 31.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $163 163 CSGOBIG_COIN | 18.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $105 105 CSGOBIG_COIN | 12.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife | 1 in 10,000 | $96.56 96.56 CSGOBIG_COIN | 11.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $74.53 74.53 CSGOBIG_COIN | 8.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · Covert | 1 in 10,000 | $61.93 61.93 CSGOBIG_COIN | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9 | 39.9% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN | 4.6% | 191 | 76.3 | 2.50× |
| P250 | Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer | 60.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN | 6.9% | 0 | 114.6 | 0.00× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1092, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$0.100.1 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$0.100.1 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$0.100.1 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9pgn$0.100.1 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$0.100.1 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$0.100.1 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$0.100.1 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$0.100.1 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$0.100.1 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$0.100.1 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.54%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.10 | 87.54% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%covert knife 0.0%Covert 0.0%#B0C3D9 39.9%consumer 60.0%best hit —