Skymark

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.79

0.79 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $0.71 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

37.83%

9 openings, odds method

Variance

315.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 85

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

9 openings · below min

30 days

9 openings · below min

since tracking started

9 openings · below min

-0.5%1040.0%2080.5%

Small sample. 9 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	70.46%±2009.2	—	odds
7d	9	37.83%±1160.0	—	odds
30d	9	37.83%±1160.0	—	odds
All	9	37.83%±1160.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,239 1,239 CSGOBIG_COIN	17.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$493 493 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$296 296 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.2%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$177 177 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$125 125 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$123 123 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$74.88 74.88 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$49.90 49.9 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$24.70 24.7 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$14.08 14.08 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 667	$10.56 10.56 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 333	$7.73 7.73 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.3%	0	0.0	—
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$4.91 4.91 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	0	0.0	—
MP7 \| Impire (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$2.94 2.94 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$1.45 1.45 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.1%	0	0.3	—
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$0.98 0.98 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.9%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	10.0%	$0.68 0.68 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.6%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	15.0%	$0.49 0.49 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.3%	2	1.3	1.48×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Slipstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	23.0%	$0.19 0.19 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.1%	0	2.1	0.00×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	40.8%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	5	3.7	1.36×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1093, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$0.790.79 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.980.98 CSGOBIG_COIN1.24x7h

StatTrak™ P250 | Valence (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$0.790.79 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.680.68 CSGOBIG_COIN0.86x7h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$0.790.79 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x7h

StatTrak™ MP7 | Cirrus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$0.790.79 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.490.49 CSGOBIG_COIN0.62x5d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$0.790.79 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x5d

StatTrak™ MP7 | Cirrus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$0.790.79 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.490.49 CSGOBIG_COIN0.62x5d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$0.790.79 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x5d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9Calz$0.790.79 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$0.79	90.00%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%covert knife 0.0%classified 0.7%restricted 7.3%mil spec 3.0%milspec 25.0%Mil Spec Grade 23.0%#B0C3D9 40.8%best hit —