High Born

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$40.00

40 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $36.00 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

13.56%

3 openings, odds method

Variance

13.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 16

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

3 openings · below min

30 days

3 openings · below min

since tracking started

3 openings · below min

-0.5%215.3%431.0%

Small sample. 3 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	3	13.56%±416.8	—	odds
30d	3	13.56%±416.8	—	odds
All	3	13.56%±416.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$3,168 3,168 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$2,200 2,200 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| The Prince (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 909	$2,100 2,100 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.4%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 400	$1,950 1,950 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 17	$205 205 CSGOBIG_COIN	33.3%	0	0.2	—
Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$74.47 74.47 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.7%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	11.0%	$31.14 31.14 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.5%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 23	$22.59 22.59 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 12	$15.55 15.55 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	1	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	11.7%	$10.13 10.13 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.3%	0	0.4	—
Sticker \| ropz (Gold, Champion) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · #EB4B4B	10.2%	$6.19 6.19 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	0	0.3	—
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$2.89 2.89 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	0	0.2	—
Dual Berettas \| Panther (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11	$1.80 1.8 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Hundredth, FREEmusic kit · High Grade	1 in 136	$1.38 1.38 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 27	$1.01 1.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 20	$0.36 0.36 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	2	0.2	—
P2000 \| Turf (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 14	$0.35 0.35 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	0.2	—
PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 68	$0.27 0.27 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 45	$0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Sealed Graffiti \| GGWP (Tiger Orange)graffiti · Common	1 in 34	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.1	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=11, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$40.0040 CSGOBIG_COIN$15.5515.55 CSGOBIG_COIN0.39x4d

StatTrak™ M249 | O.S.I.P.R. (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecMexi$40.0040 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.360.36 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x4d

StatTrak™ M249 | O.S.I.P.R. (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$40.0040 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.360.36 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$40.00	90.00%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 17.0%classified 8.1%Classified 0.3%restricted 19.8%industrial 6.6%Mythical 11.7%#EB4B4B 10.2%mil spec 8.8%High Grade 0.7%milspec 6.6%#4b69ff 7.3%Common 2.9%best hit —