Prickles

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$128.23

128 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.97%

EV $115.37 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

25.12%

42 openings, odds method

Variance

353.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 1,000

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

96.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

29 openings · below min

30 days

42 openings · below min

since tracking started

42 openings · below min

-0.5%355.8%712.0%

Small sample. 42 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	29	27.39%±683.9	—	odds
30d	42	25.12%±568.3	—	odds
All	42	25.12%±568.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 42 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus - 4x IBP (Factory New)weapon · #EB4B4B	1 in 2,000	$100K 100,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	43.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$33K 33,026 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 2,000	$15.3K 15,319 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.6%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 2,000	$11.2K 11,243 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,000	$8,994 8,994 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,667	$8,276 8,276 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.3%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 3,333	$5,219 5,219 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 425	$1,042 1,042 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 119	$293 293 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 60	$147 147 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	1	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 37	$91.07 91.07 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	2	1.1	1.77×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$48.33 48.33 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	6	2.1	2.81×
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$29.05 29.05 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	4	3.5	1.13×
PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted	12.6%	$19.50 19.5 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	5	5.3	0.95×
Sticker \| Complexity Gaming (Gold) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · #EB4B4B	17.2%	$14.24 14.24 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	3	7.2	0.41×
Souvenir USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	22.4%	$10.98 10.98 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	5	9.4	0.53×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	28.5%	$8.61 8.61 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	15	12.0	1.25×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1102, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$128128 CSGOBIG_COIN$293293 CSGOBIG_COIN2.29x2d

CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$128128 CSGOBIG_COIN$8.618.61 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x2d

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted$128128 CSGOBIG_COIN$19.5019.5 CSGOBIG_COIN0.15x2d

M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$128128 CSGOBIG_COIN$48.3348.33 CSGOBIG_COIN0.38x2d

Sticker | Complexity Gaming (Gold) | Antwerp 2022sticker · #EB4B4B$128128 CSGOBIG_COIN$14.2414.24 CSGOBIG_COIN0.11x2d

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted$128128 CSGOBIG_COIN$19.5019.5 CSGOBIG_COIN0.15x4d

Souvenir USP-S | Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$128128 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.9810.98 CSGOBIG_COIN0.09x4d

CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$128128 CSGOBIG_COIN$8.618.61 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$128	89.97%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#EB4B4B 17.3%extraordinary 0.3%contraband 0.1%remarkable 0.1%covert 6.9%high 0.0%restricted 21.9%covert knife 2.7%Restricted 22.4%classified 28.5%best hit —