5% Inferno Vault

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$150.00

150 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $135.00 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

36.47%

15 openings, odds method

Variance

5.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

15 openings · below min

30 days

15 openings · below min

since tracking started

15 openings · below min

-0.5%129.5%259.5%

Small sample. 15 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	73.43%±185.4	—	odds
7d	15	36.47%±117.3	—	odds
30d	15	36.47%±117.3	—	odds
All	15	36.47%±117.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 20	$1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	55.6%	0	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	10.1%	$510 510 CSGOBIG_COIN	38.1%	1	1.5	0.66×
Sticker \| ESL One Cologne 2014 (Red)sticker · #d32ce6	14.4%	$47.87 47.87 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.1%	6	2.2	2.78×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$7.32 7.32 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Skog, II-Headshotmusic kit · #4B69FF	11.5%	$6.47 6.47 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	1	1.7	0.58×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$3.05 3.05 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	2	1.1	1.85×
P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 12	$1.39 1.39 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	12.9%	$1.24 1.24 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	1	1.9	0.51×
Patch \| Shattered Webpatch · Rare	1 in 17	$0.79 0.79 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	2	0.9	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	15.8%	$0.69 0.69 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	1	2.4	0.42×
Sticker \| Eternal Fire (Glitter) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · Mythical	1 in 69	$0.68 0.68 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 35	$0.30 0.3 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.4	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=113, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B$150150 CSGOBIG_COIN$510510 CSGOBIG_COIN3.40x22h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Patch | Shattered Webpatch · Rare$150150 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.790.79 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x22h

★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B$150150 CSGOBIG_COIN$510510 CSGOBIG_COIN3.40x22h

Sticker | ESL One Cologne 2014 (Red)sticker · #d32ce6$150150 CSGOBIG_COIN$47.8747.87 CSGOBIG_COIN0.32x22h

StatTrak™ Music Kit | Skog, II-Headshotmusic kit · #4B69FFOgnyenGamba$150150 CSGOBIG_COIN$6.476.47 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x22h

Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$150150 CSGOBIG_COIN$7.327.32 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x1d

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$150150 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.690.69 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$150150 CSGOBIG_COIN$3.053.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x1d

Sticker | ESL One Cologne 2014 (Red)sticker · #d32ce6$150150 CSGOBIG_COIN$47.8747.87 CSGOBIG_COIN0.32x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$150	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 5.0%#EB4B4B 10.1%#d32ce6 14.4%restricted 11.5%#4B69FF 11.5%Mythical 10.1%mil spec 12.9%Rare 5.8%Restricted 15.8%violet 2.9%best hit $510 (3.40x)