Mariposa
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$65.00
65 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.05%
EV $58.53 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
146.14%
1 openings, odds method
Variance
21.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1150, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | Zeus (Gold) | London 2018sticker · extraordinary$65.0065 CSGOBIG_COIN$94.9994.99 CSGOBIG_COIN1.46x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.05%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $65.00 | 90.05% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.3%classified 31.4%extraordinary 21.9%gold 0.1%covert knife 0.1%Ancient 13.9%#8847FF 15.3%restricted 13.0%best hit —