Blue Willow
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$43.66
43.66 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.05%
EV $39.32 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.74%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
5.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1155, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$43.6643.66 CSGOBIG_COIN$50.9150.91 CSGOBIG_COIN1.17x
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6$43.6643.66 CSGOBIG_COIN$30.2630.26 CSGOBIG_COIN0.69x
Autograph Capsule | Fnatic | Cluj-Napoca 2015other · #B0C3D9$43.6643.66 CSGOBIG_COIN$7.177.17 CSGOBIG_COIN0.16x
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$43.6643.66 CSGOBIG_COIN$50.9150.91 CSGOBIG_COIN1.17x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.05%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $43.66 | 90.05% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.2%classified 8.6%exotic 4.5%#D32CE6 11.0%restricted 14.9%#d32ee6 12.6%#5E98D9 11.5%mil spec 10.0%#B0C3D9 26.8%best hit —