Overload
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$75.52
75.52 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.06%
EV $68.02 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.58%
3 openings, odds method
Variance
13.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 3 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1156, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$75.5275.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$104104 CSGOBIG_COIN1.38x
StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$75.5275.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$30.3830.38 CSGOBIG_COIN0.40x
Sticker | Freeman (Gold) | Berlin 2019sticker · #EB4B4BDefault Name$75.5275.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$43.2743.27 CSGOBIG_COIN0.57x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.06%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $75.52 | 90.06% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.7%classified 18.6%covert knife 0.1%#8847ff 14.2%#EB4B4B 16.3%Classified 15.0%#4B69FF 35.2%best hit —