Yolkie

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$26.72

26.72 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.02%

EV $24.05 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

95.46%

16 openings, odds method

Variance

7.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

56.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

16 openings · below min

30 days

16 openings · below min

since tracking started

16 openings · below min

-0.5%113.5%227.5%

Small sample. 16 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	16	95.46%±131.4	—	odds
30d	16	95.46%±131.4	—	odds
All	16	95.46%±131.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,750 2,750 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,900 1,900 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.6%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.9%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$1,200 1,200 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,050 1,050 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.2%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$750 750 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$390 390 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 500	$360 360 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 333	$275 275 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.4%	1	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus KnifeStatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 1,000	$210 210 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Spruce DDPAT (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 256	$160 160 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$130 130 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$100 100 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Undertow (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$65.00 65 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 18	$55.00 55 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.9%	0	0.9	—
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	13.0%	$43.00 43 CSGOBIG_COIN	23.2%	1	2.1	0.48×
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	20.0%	$30.00 30 CSGOBIG_COIN	24.9%	3	3.2	0.94×
P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	25.0%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	3	4.0	0.75×
Nova \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	31.0%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	8	5.0	1.61×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1167, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Nova | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$26.7226.72 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$26.7226.72 CSGOBIG_COIN$275275 CSGOBIG_COIN10.29x1d

P90 | Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$26.7226.72 CSGOBIG_COIN$43.0043 CSGOBIG_COIN1.61x1d

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$26.7226.72 CSGOBIG_COIN$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN1.12x1d

Nova | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer✪ DB™$26.7226.72 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$26.7226.72 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

Nova | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$26.7226.72 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$26.7226.72 CSGOBIG_COIN$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN1.12x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.02%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$26.72	90.02%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 41.5%classified 2.1%#EB4B4B 0.1%extraordinary 0.4%consumer 56.0%best hit —