Rattle

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$36.22

36.22 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.05%

EV $32.61 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

57.56%

3 openings, odds method

Variance

2.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

3 openings · below min

30 days

3 openings · below min

since tracking started

3 openings · below min

-0.5%118.5%237.5%

Small sample. 3 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	3	57.56%±179.5	—	odds
30d	3	57.56%±179.5	—	odds
All	3	57.56%±179.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 1,000	$1,265 1,265 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.9%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,067	$891 891 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,092	$286 286 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 48	$148 148 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	11.0%	$94.09 94.09 CSGOBIG_COIN	31.8%	0	0.3	—
Sealed Graffiti \| Recoil AWP (Blood Red)graffiti · #B0C3D9	10.8%	$51.63 51.63 CSGOBIG_COIN	17.1%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	13.1%	$31.03 31.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.4%	0	0.4	—
Sticker \| HooXi (Gold) \| Paris 2023sticker · #EB4B4B	11.7%	$20.85 20.85 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.5%	3	0.3	—
Sticker \| device \| Cologne 2015sticker · Rare	1 in 10	$15.21 15.21 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.6%	0	0.3	—
Souvenir MP9 \| Dark Age (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$11.71 11.71 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.0%	0	0.2	—
Autograph Capsule \| Fnatic \| Atlanta 2017other · #B0C3D9	1 in 15	$9.29 9.29 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.9%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 18	$7.36 7.36 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce6	20.6%	$5.91 5.91 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.7%	0	0.6	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1179, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | HooXi (Gold) | Paris 2023sticker · #EB4B4B$36.2236.22 CSGOBIG_COIN$20.8520.85 CSGOBIG_COIN0.58x2d

Sticker | HooXi (Gold) | Paris 2023sticker · #EB4B4BPhukFace$36.2236.22 CSGOBIG_COIN$20.8520.85 CSGOBIG_COIN0.58x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.05%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$36.22	90.05%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 2.2%covert 18.8%gold 11.0%#B0C3D9 17.5%#EB4B4B 11.7%Rare 10.0%mil spec 8.3%#d32ce6 20.6%best hit —