5% Electric Surge
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$500.00
500 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $450.00 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
2.88%
3 openings, odds method
Variance
11.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 3 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=118, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert$500500 CSGOBIG_COIN$37.1937.19 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x
Music Kit | Kelly Bailey, Hazardous Environmentsmusic kit · #4B69FFRaven 5K LB BiW$500500 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.335.33 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $500 | 90.00% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 10.8%#ffd700 2.9%covert 18.7%industrial 10.1%#4B69FF 15.8%#8847ff 11.5%#8847FF 8.6%Restricted 13.0%restricted 8.6%best hit —