Birdie
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$55.72
55.72 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.07%
EV $50.19 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.22%
2 openings, odds method
Variance
21.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 2 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1181, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Toybox (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$55.7255.72 CSGOBIG_COIN$54.8154.81 CSGOBIG_COIN0.98x
StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$55.7255.72 CSGOBIG_COIN$22.3322.33 CSGOBIG_COIN0.40x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.07%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $55.72 | 90.07% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.1%epic 0.0%covert 15.8%Covert 0.1%#EB4B4B 0.1%sunny 4.2%pink 41.5%classified 28.0%#D32CE6 10.3%best hit —