Sporeshift
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$42.55
42.55 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.94%
EV $38.27 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.87%
8 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 8 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1188, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6$42.5542.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$30.2630.26 CSGOBIG_COIN0.71x
Sticker | Titan (Foil) | Cluj-Napoca 2015sticker · exotic$42.5542.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$147147 CSGOBIG_COIN3.46x
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$42.5542.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$50.9150.91 CSGOBIG_COIN1.20x
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$42.5542.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$50.9150.91 CSGOBIG_COIN1.20x
AUG | Wings (Factory New)weapon · mil specLouisInRussian$42.5542.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$14.8714.87 CSGOBIG_COIN0.35x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $42.55 | 89.94% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.2%classified 8.1%exotic 5.8%#D32CE6 10.6%restricted 14.3%#d32ee6 11.9%#5E98D9 10.9%mil spec 9.5%#B0C3D9 28.7%best hit —