Krabby
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$31.55
31.55 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.25%
EV $28.47 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
48.25%
7 openings, odds method
Variance
16.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 7 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1189, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$31.5531.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$11.2111.21 CSGOBIG_COIN0.36x
USP-S | Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$31.5531.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$29.7029.7 CSGOBIG_COIN0.94x
StatTrak™ AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$31.5531.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$19.9019.9 CSGOBIG_COIN0.63x
M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$31.5531.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$8.818.81 CSGOBIG_COIN0.28x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$31.5531.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$11.2111.21 CSGOBIG_COIN0.36x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$31.5531.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$11.2111.21 CSGOBIG_COIN0.36x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.25%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $31.55 | 90.25% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 28.8%covert knife 5.3%exotic 5.1%mil spec 8.5%restricted 12.6%pink 17.3%Restricted 22.4%best hit —