Focus
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$42.55
42.55 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.92%
EV $38.26 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.17%
5 openings, odds method
Variance
5.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 5 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1192, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert$42.5542.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$14.2514.25 CSGOBIG_COIN0.33x
Souvenir USP-S | Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$42.5542.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.9810.98 CSGOBIG_COIN0.26x
CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$42.5542.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$8.618.61 CSGOBIG_COIN0.20x
Sticker | disco doplan (Foil) | Atlanta 2017sticker · #D32CE6$42.5542.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$19.5119.51 CSGOBIG_COIN0.46x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.92%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $42.55 | 89.92% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 14.6%extraordinary 0.1%mil spec 3.5%covert knife 9.8%red 16.9%#D32CE6 15.9%Covert 10.6%Restricted 9.4%classified 19.3%best hit —