Clove Cluster

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$29.66

29.66 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.14%

EV $26.74 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

46.68%

3 openings, odds method

Variance

8.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

3 openings · below min

30 days

3 openings · below min

since tracking started

3 openings · below min

-0.5%188.8%378.0%

Small sample. 3 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	3	46.68%±330.5	—	odds
30d	3	46.68%±330.5	—	odds
All	3	46.68%±330.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$3,527 3,527 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 275	$1,237 1,237 CSGOBIG_COIN	16.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 127	$253 253 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · knifes	1 in 75	$149 149 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 51	$102 102 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$66.10 66.1 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.4%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Commuter (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$39.95 39.95 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.4%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| felps (Foil) \| Krakow 2017sticker · #8847FF	1 in 14	$27.92 27.92 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.4%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| Fnatic \| DreamHack 2014sticker · #4B69FF	1 in 10	$20.26 20.26 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.4%	1	0.3	—
Sticker \| NEO (Gold) \| Berlin 2019sticker · #EB4B4B	12.7%	$15.70 15.7 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.4%	0	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	15.7%	$12.69 12.69 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.4%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	19.1%	$10.40 10.4 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.4%	0	0.6	—
Glock-18 \| Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	23.2%	$8.59 8.59 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.4%	1	0.7	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1193, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$29.6629.66 CSGOBIG_COIN$12.6912.69 CSGOBIG_COIN0.43x1d

Glock-18 | Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted$29.6629.66 CSGOBIG_COIN$8.598.59 CSGOBIG_COIN0.29x1d

Sticker | Fnatic | DreamHack 2014sticker · #4B69FF$29.6629.66 CSGOBIG_COIN$20.2620.26 CSGOBIG_COIN0.68x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.14%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$29.66	90.14%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 18.7%extraordinary 0.4%covert knife 2.7%knifes 1.3%industrial 5.0%#8847FF 7.1%#4B69FF 9.8%#EB4B4B 12.7%#8847ff 19.1%Restricted 23.2%best hit —