Peak

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$73.55

73.55 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.03%

EV $66.22 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

123.97%

3 openings, odds method

Variance

32.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

3 openings · below min

30 days

3 openings · below min

since tracking started

3 openings · below min

-0.5%382.0%764.5%

Small sample. 3 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	3	123.97%±639.7	—	odds
30d	3	123.97%±639.7	—	odds
All	3	123.97%±639.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 1,000	$10.4K 10,415 CSGOBIG_COIN	15.7%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 667	$6,423 6,423 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,520 1,520 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,102	$1,046 1,046 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,026	$294 294 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 11	$147 147 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.8%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	11.5%	$91.18 91.18 CSGOBIG_COIN	15.8%	3	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	16.7%	$48.36 48.36 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.2%	0	0.5	—
Cmdr. Davida 'Goggles' Fernandez \| SEAL Frogmanagent · red	17.3%	$29.07 29.07 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.6%	0	0.5	—
PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted	16.3%	$19.50 19.5 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.8%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	10.9%	$14.25 14.25 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.3%	0	0.3	—
Souvenir USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	17.8%	$10.98 10.98 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.9%	0	0.5	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1196, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$73.5573.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$91.1891.18 CSGOBIG_COIN1.24x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.03%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$73.55	90.03%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%covert 17.2%gold 8.9%covert knife 11.5%red 17.3%restricted 16.3%Covert 10.9%Restricted 17.8%best hit —