The Thrill

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$30.00

30 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $27.00 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

109.08%

7 openings, odds method

Variance

2.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

7 openings · below min

30 days

7 openings · below min

since tracking started

7 openings · below min

-0.5%111.8%224.0%

Small sample. 7 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	7	109.08%±114.3	—	odds
30d	7	109.08%±114.3	—	odds
All	7	109.08%±114.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 100	$200 200 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.4%	0	0.1	—
PP-Bizon \| Modern Hunter (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$200 200 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.4%	0	0.1	—
SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 13	$111 111 CSGOBIG_COIN	30.6%	1	0.5	—
MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 12	$103 103 CSGOBIG_COIN	32.8%	1	0.6	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 29	$72.23 72.23 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.2%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| jkaem (Foil) \| Cologne 2016sticker · #D32CE6	1 in 44	$44.89 44.89 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.8%	0	0.2	—
Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 22	$12.31 12.31 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	1	0.3	—
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$10.57 10.57 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	0	0.4	—
Katowice 2019 Minor Challengers (Holo-Foil)other · #B0C3D9	1 in 25	$6.74 6.74 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 15	$6.28 6.28 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.6%	0	0.5	—
Sticker \| Liquid (Gold) \| 2020 RMRsticker · #EB4B4B	1 in 11	$2.76 2.76 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	0	0.6	—
P2000 \| Panther Camo (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 10	$1.39 1.39 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	1	0.7	—
Nova \| Gila (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 17	$1.21 1.21 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	1	0.4	—
Nova \| Walnut (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	1 in 35	$1.07 1.07 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| Cerberussticker · #4b69ff	1 in 58	$0.57 0.57 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| CR4ZY (Holo) \| Berlin 2019sticker · #8847FF	1 in 12	$0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Spirit Board (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 16	$0.21 0.21 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.4	—
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 174	$0.19 0.19 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	1	0.0	—
Sealed Graffiti \| Eco (Monarch Blue)graffiti · #B0C3D9	1 in 87	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Sealed Graffiti \| Quickdraw (Battle Green)graffiti · #B0C3D9	10.3%	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	1	0.7	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=12, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CZ75-Auto | Circaetus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.190.19 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x5d

Nova | Gila (Factory New)weapon · Mythical$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.211.21 CSGOBIG_COIN0.04x5d

MAG-7 | Counter Terrace (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$103103 CSGOBIG_COIN3.44x5d

Galil AR | Dusk Ruins (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$12.3112.31 CSGOBIG_COIN0.41x5d

P2000 | Panther Camo (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ffSkander$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.391.39 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x5d

SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$111111 CSGOBIG_COIN3.69x5d

Sealed Graffiti | Quickdraw (Battle Green)graffiti · #B0C3D9$30.0030 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$30.00	90.00%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 1.0%mil spec 7.3%Classified 7.4%#4b69ff 15.5%covert 3.4%#D32CE6 2.3%restricted 5.2%#B0C3D9 15.5%#d32ce6 6.9%#EB4B4B 9.2%#87c7ff 9.7%Mythical 5.7%Common 2.9%#8847FF 8.0%best hit —