Floatie

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$73.55

73.55 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.04%

EV $66.23 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

47.56%

4 openings, odds method

Variance

28.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

4 openings · below min

30 days

4 openings · below min

since tracking started

4 openings · below min

-0.5%285.3%571.0%

Small sample. 4 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	4	47.56%±522.6	—	odds
30d	4	47.56%±522.6	—	odds
All	4	47.56%±522.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,000	$10.9K 10,899 CSGOBIG_COIN	16.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,000	$5,254 5,254 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.9%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$2,700 2,700 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 1,093	$748 748 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,005	$275 275 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 11	$148 148 CSGOBIG_COIN	20.1%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	13.2%	$96.68 96.68 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.3%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Tranquility (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	15.5%	$55.58 55.58 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.0%	0	0.6	—
Sticker \| fer \| Cologne 2015sticker · #4B69FF	14.5%	$33.30 33.3 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.3%	0	0.6	—
Souvenir AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	11.8%	$22.81 22.81 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.1%	1	0.5	—
CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 15	$16.57 16.57 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 19	$12.87 12.87 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	0	0.2	—
Souvenir AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Uncommon	23.5%	$10.22 10.22 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.6%	2	0.9	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1202, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$73.5573.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$22.8122.81 CSGOBIG_COIN0.31x6d

★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$73.5573.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$96.6896.68 CSGOBIG_COIN1.31x6d

Souvenir AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Uncommon$73.5573.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.2210.22 CSGOBIG_COIN0.14x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.04%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$73.55	90.04%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.3%gold 0.1%covert knife 13.3%#d32ee6 15.5%#4B69FF 14.5%restricted 11.8%#4b69ff 6.8%industrial 5.2%Uncommon 23.5%best hit —