Snapshot
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$152.33
152 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.05%
EV $137.17 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
41.27%
3 openings, odds method
Variance
14.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 3 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1203, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sticker | G2 Esports (Foil) | Cologne 2016sticker · #D32CE6$152152 CSGOBIG_COIN$31.4631.46 CSGOBIG_COIN0.21x
★ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert$152152 CSGOBIG_COIN$148148 CSGOBIG_COIN0.97x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.05%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $152 | 90.05% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.1%covert 3.5%covert knife 12.2%Covert 16.6%#EB4B4B 12.5%classified 19.7%#D32CE6 19.2%#4B69FF 9.7%#B0C3D9 6.6%best hit —