Sandlot

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$124.33

124 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $111.88 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

35.69%

13 openings, odds method

Variance

45.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

7 openings · below min

30 days

13 openings · below min

since tracking started

13 openings · below min

-0.5%267.3%535.0%

Small sample. 13 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	7	37.40%±496.9	—	odds
30d	13	35.69%±364.6	—	odds
All	13	35.69%±364.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 1,000	$22.2K 22,214 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.9%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 1,000	$11.8K 11,845 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.6%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$6,241 6,241 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.6%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 667	$3,553 3,553 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 500	$1,939 1,939 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 333	$1,088 1,088 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.9%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 1,050	$375 375 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 1,014	$222 222 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$147 147 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.3%	1	1.2	0.82×
MP9 \| Dark Age (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	13.1%	$108 108 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.6%	1	1.7	0.59×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	12.3%	$77.21 77.21 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.5%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	11.9%	$51.44 51.44 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.5%	0	1.5	0.00×
Sticker \| kNgV- (Foil) \| Krakow 2017sticker · #8847FF	11.8%	$35.53 35.53 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.7%	3	1.5	1.96×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	40.5%	$26.95 26.95 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.7%	8	5.3	1.52×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1205, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Jet Set (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$124124 CSGOBIG_COIN$147147 CSGOBIG_COIN1.18x1d

Sticker | kNgV- (Foil) | Krakow 2017sticker · #8847FF$124124 CSGOBIG_COIN$35.5335.53 CSGOBIG_COIN0.29x1d

Souvenir AK-47 | Green Laminate (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$124124 CSGOBIG_COIN$26.9526.95 CSGOBIG_COIN0.22x1d

Souvenir AK-47 | Green Laminate (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · mil specBUYhighSELLlow$124124 CSGOBIG_COIN$26.9526.95 CSGOBIG_COIN0.22x1d

Souvenir AK-47 | Green Laminate (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$124124 CSGOBIG_COIN$26.9526.95 CSGOBIG_COIN0.22x5d

Sticker | kNgV- (Foil) | Krakow 2017sticker · #8847FFPOTATO$124124 CSGOBIG_COIN$35.5335.53 CSGOBIG_COIN0.29x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$124	89.99%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 0.1%contraband 0.1%covert 0.6%Classified 0.1%#EB4B4B 0.1%Immortal 0.1%classified 9.4%mil spec 53.5%covert knife 12.3%Legendary 11.9%#8847FF 11.8%best hit —