Bullseye

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$35.98

35.98 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.07%

EV $32.41 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

65.38%

4 openings, odds method

Variance

8.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

4 openings · below min

30 days

4 openings · below min

since tracking started

4 openings · below min

-0.5%172.3%345.0%

Small sample. 4 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	4	65.38%±278.8	—	odds
30d	4	65.38%±278.8	—	odds
All	4	65.38%±278.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,000	$3,000 3,000 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,102	$947 947 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.6%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 1,054	$290 290 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| Titan (Foil) \| Cluj-Napoca 2015sticker · exotic	1 in 99	$147 147 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 10	$93.17 93.17 CSGOBIG_COIN	28.5%	0	0.4	—
Sticker \| STYKO (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017sticker · #D32CE6	13.4%	$50.93 50.93 CSGOBIG_COIN	21.1%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	12.4%	$30.26 30.26 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.5%	1	0.5	—
SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5E98D9	11.4%	$20.30 20.3 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.2%	0	0.5	—
AUG \| Wings (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10	$14.87 14.87 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.6%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 12	$11.47 11.47 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.0%	0	0.3	—
London 2018 Returning Challengers Autograph Capsulecontainer · #B0C3D9	1 in 14	$9.04 9.04 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	0	0.3	—
Autograph Capsule \| Fnatic \| Cluj-Napoca 2015other · #B0C3D9	1 in 17	$7.17 7.17 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.3%	1	0.2	—
CS:GO Weapon Case 3other · #B0C3D9	20.3%	$5.74 5.74 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.6%	1	0.8	—

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1206, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CS:GO Weapon Case 3other · #B0C3D9$35.9835.98 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.745.74 CSGOBIG_COIN0.16x4d

Autograph Capsule | Fnatic | Cluj-Napoca 2015other · #B0C3D9$35.9835.98 CSGOBIG_COIN$7.177.17 CSGOBIG_COIN0.20x4d

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6$35.9835.98 CSGOBIG_COIN$30.2630.26 CSGOBIG_COIN0.84x4d

Sticker | STYKO (Foil) | Atlanta 2017sticker · #D32CE6tody$35.9835.98 CSGOBIG_COIN$50.9350.93 CSGOBIG_COIN1.42x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.07%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$35.98	90.07%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%covert knife 10.0%industrial 0.1%exotic 1.0%#D32CE6 13.4%#d32ee6 12.4%#5E98D9 11.4%mil spec 10.0%classified 8.4%#B0C3D9 33.2%best hit —